Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.473657 0.549490 0.632911 0.731399 0.844411 0.969944 1.119879
2025-05-11 0.347330 0.449758 0.574484 0.737115 0.943134 1.194963 1.525675
2025-05-18 0.275088 0.385686 0.530575 0.733387 1.008949 1.369202 1.874668
2025-05-25 0.224914 0.336776 0.492415 0.723313 1.055448 1.513920 2.192392
2025-06-01 0.189563 0.300649 0.463536 0.717683 1.101698 1.657108 2.517323
2025-06-08 0.158014 0.264163 0.427446 0.694156 1.115493 1.751034 2.776386
2025-06-15 0.147387 0.258052 0.435564 0.737332 1.232828 2.007880 3.303103
2025-06-22 0.125691 0.230311 0.405177 0.714298 1.241349 2.095368 3.572043
2025-06-29 0.108014 0.206642 0.378027 0.692356 1.247564 2.177384 3.837038
2025-07-06 0.094000 0.187350 0.355652 0.675249 1.258854 2.266957 4.120650
2025-07-13 0.086478 0.178971 0.351457 0.689581 1.326021 2.456743 4.592706
2025-07-20 0.082663 0.177153 0.358956 0.725954 1.436277 2.731243 5.238565
2025-07-27 0.076902 0.170885 0.357651 0.746259 1.520301 2.969292 5.846619
2025-08-03 0.070243 0.161856 0.349896 0.753152 1.579627 3.167940 6.401784
2025-08-10 0.063386 0.151356 0.337733 0.749398 1.616905 3.327177 6.894821
2025-08-17 0.056805 0.140481 0.323355 0.739118 1.639358 3.458796 7.344605
2025-08-24 0.051390 0.131469 0.311810 0.733370 1.670248 3.609301 7.844816
2025-08-31 0.045276 0.119875 0.293046 0.709353 1.659116 3.672304 8.169982
2025-09-07 0.044461 0.121173 0.303842 0.753428 1.801842 4.068837 9.229534
2025-09-14 0.039408 0.110991 0.286444 0.729914 1.789975 4.134163 9.584469
2025-09-21 0.035008 0.101837 0.270349 0.707515 1.778057 4.197733 9.940258
2025-09-28 0.031368 0.094169 0.256949 0.690050 1.775730 4.281961 10.348806
2025-10-05 0.029683 0.091675 0.256389 0.704682 1.852203 4.551594 11.202362